Buena Park, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS66 KLOX 251044
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
244 AM PST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...25/1249 AM.

Two more impulses will move through the area today and Friday and
will bring periods of showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms. The potential for flooding will be high during this
period. Showers are expected to pater off by late Friday evening
with dry and warmer weather returning for the rest of the weekend
through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...25/208 AM.

The main AR is gone after dumping 2 to 4 inches of rain across the
csts/vlys and 4 to 8 locally 10 inches over the foothills and
mtns. A small area of PVA and instability has brought numerous
mdt to stg showers to VTA county overnight with relatively quite
conditions across the rest of the county.

Two more impulses are slated to run through the area today and
tonight/Friday morning. The first impulse will enter the Central
Coast around dawn this morning and will exit LA county late this
afternoon. Impulse number 2 will enter the Central Coast this
evening and exit LA county around noon on Friday. The first
impulse will bring about an inch to an inch and half of rain to
the csts/vlys and 2 to 4 inches to the mtns of SLO/SBA/VTA
counties. LA county will likely recieve only half of these values
as the impulse is fcst to weaken as it moves through VTA county.
The opposite in rainfall distribution will likely occur for
impulse #2 where less than an inch will fall over most of SLO and
SBA counties and only a little more over VTA county. LA county ,
however, will see a good southerly moist unstable flow into the
county after midnight Friday and will likely see inch to an inch
and half of rain to the csts/vlys and 1.5 to 3 locally 4 inches
to the mtns.

The flooding threat will be exacerbated today and Friday due to
the super saturation of all of the area. Any rainfall that occurs
will immediately turn to run off.

Snow levels will be around 6000 ft due the cooler air assoc with
these systems and there will be a few inches of accumulating snow
above this level. Snow levels fall to near 5000 ft Friday evening
but by then most of the precip will have ended.

Most max temps both days across the csts and vlys will end up in
the upper 50s and lower 60s which is pretty typical for December
storms.

Unstable air and weak PVA will keep a slight chc of showers going
on Saturday (mainly in the morning). Additional rainfall will not
amount to more than a quarter inch and likely under a tenth. It
will still be a mostly cloudy day with lower than normal hgts but
max temps should rise a few degrees into the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...25/206 AM.

Mdls are in much better (but not perfect) agreement for the Sunday
through Tuesday period. Both the EC and GFS as well as most of
their ensemble members now show some sort of upper ridge nosing in
from the west and decent (4 to 6 mb) offshore flow developing from
both the north and east. Low end advisories are possible each day.
Skies will be mostly clear and the sunshine and offshore flow will
team up 2 to 4 locally 5 degrees or warming each day. By Tuesday
max temps across the csts and vlys will be in the upper 60s to the
mid 70s (mostly 3 to 6 degrees over normal)

Not much agreement on Wednesday but about 20 percent of the
ensembles show some rain. A better chc of will develop next
Thursday. Right now it looks like that any rain that does come
from this system will be on the light side.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0610Z.

At 0511Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
There was a 7000+ moist layer.

Low confidence in all TAFs through the period. Cigs and Vis will
vary frequently as showers moves through the area.

There is a 10-15 percent chc of TSTMs through the period.

Gusty winds will affect the airfields at times through Friday.
The winds will generate turbulence over and near to hier trrn.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently
as showers move through the area. There is a 10 percent chc of a
TSTM through the period. Good confidence that there will be an
east wind component over 10kt through at through 26/00Z. Good
confidence that east winds 5-10kt will continue through Friday
morning.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently
as showers move through the area. There is a 10 percent chc of a
TSTM through the period. Gusty winds at times will generate
periods of turbc and LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...25/230 AM.

A powerful winter storm will continue through Friday and will
bring dangerous marine conditions including strong winds, rough
short- period seas, heavy rain, and a chance for thunderstorms.
Vessels, especially small vessels, are strongly advised to remain
in safe harbor for the duration of the storm, as these conditions
can sink boats. South-facing harbors will also be especially
vulnerable to the south swell and strong winds.

Gale force winds may subside early than forecast and the gales may
be converted to small craft advisories for the tonight and Friday
periods in subsequent shifts.

Details:
South to southeast winds and high seas to will affect the waters
through Friday. GALE conditions are expected, likely strongest
north of Point Conception. These strong winds are expected to
affect the nearshore waters, especially for unsheltered south-
facing coastlines & areas north of Pt. Conception.

Southerly short-period seas will bring elevated, choppy conditions
at south-facing harbor entrances. There is a 15-25% chance of
thunderstorms through Friday morning, which will bring a threat
of erratic gusty winds, heavy downpours, cloud-to-water lightning
and a small chance of waterspouts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 3 PM PST this
      afternoon for zones
      38-87-88-340>353-369-370-376>383-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday afternoon for
      zones 38-87-88-340>358-362-366>383-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 354>358-362-366>368-371>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PST Friday for zones
      645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Friday for
      zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black/Rorke/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox